Aleander Romanovich: Trump’s nomination means that forecasting in international politics should be treated with great care
July 20, 2016
Alexander Romanovich, Vice-Chairman of the State Duma, commented on the results of the US Republican National Convention which confirmed billionaire Donald Trump as the Party’s nominee for the US presidential election:
Well, the Republican National Convention held in Cleveland (Ohio) made the decision to confirm billionaire Donald Trump as the Party’s nominee for the US presidential election.
This fact of life proves once again that forecasting in international politics should be treated with great care.
A great number of forecasts about Trump’s failure was published both in the USA and overseas. In addition to a lot of damaging information that was launched, Trump was gossiped about and picked to peaces through and through. Even at the decisive Republican Convention, a clumsy attempt of the party’s revolt was made, but Trump’s supporters managed to cope with it, and their leader gained a simple majority of votes already in an hour of the debates.
The information attacks against Trump’s spouse Melany (a Slovenian beauty, a former photomodel, and a designer at present) which are so typical for any election campaign in the USA did not help either. Of course, they rooted out her photos in a bathing suit, made a point of her supposing immorality but they met with a chivalrous, resounding rebuff from her husband.
The day before the decisive convention, they accused Melany of the plagiarism from the recent speech of Michel Obama, the President’s spouse. But this last bite was also weak as in America, when they write speeches for the first ladies or candidates for this status, they traditionally use the theme of patriotism, motherhood or care about the future generations. Moreover, a great variety of traditional stereotypes is used.
Trump’s election race competitor will be determined officially next week. It must be Hillary Clinton who will be nominated by the Democratic Party’s Convention.
As we have already expressed some doubt about the forecasts, I am not going to fantasize about the results of the presidential election in the USA. But as we have already expressed some doubts about the US presidential election, I am not going to fantasize about the election results. If Trump is the candidate approved by the party, we might think about what Russia would gain from this Republican variant.
The Republicans are formally considered to be more conservative than the Democrats, and, in theory, their attitude to Russia must be (let’s put it this way) harder than of the Democrats. But the paradox is that when it came down to real politics, it was always easier for us to deal with the Democrats, in particular: Eisenhower, Nixon, Ford, Reagan and then both Bushes. Something that was really positive in our relations with Washington emerged right when they were in office.
I may explain this in two ways: firstly, healthy pragmatism is typical for the Republicans who usually demonstrated it in foreign policy, towards us as well. Secondly, the Republicans have always had strong teams of experts on the USSR and Russia at the State Department. Professionalism, as such, means reasonable approach and is sure to deprive you of extremes.
Let’s remember how Hillary Clinton, during her time as the State Department Head, still had ‘to borrow’ from the Republicans well-known Condoleezza Rice, who was not among our best friends, but who was a really experienced specialist highly appreciated by George Bush, and who was the first in American history Afro-American Head of the State Department during the presidency of Bush, the Junior. But frankly speaking, it did not help Hillary, Clinton’s spouse, to make a brilliant display as the US Secretary of State.